US/Israel Vs Iran: What To Expect As Mojtaba Succeeds Father
It’s no longer news that Iran has announced Mojtaba Khamenei as its new supreme leader following the death of his predecessor and father, Ali Khamenei whose reign lasted for almost 37 years. A blizzard of airstrikes delivered on the senior Khamenei’s residence after a joint nocturnal reconnitre by both America and Israel ended Ali’s reign.
The new Islamic leader was chosen by Iran’s Assembly of Experts, a clerical coterie comprising 88 male theologians after an interregnum that lasted for almost a week.With this development, Mojtaba will assume office and adopt the title, like his father a before him, Ayatollah “meaning senior cleric”. Though Mojtaba is not new to the politics and policies that have shaped and sustained Iran over the years, he has no proven track records of leadership. He had, until now, never been entrusted with the levers of power.
Mojtaba may have been at the corridors of power for the 37 of his almost 57 years of existence (the new Islamic leader was born on September 8 1969), but many are of the opinion that Ali’s second of his six children is a greenhorn who knows little or nothing about power and its attendant challenges.
Beyond the mundane trappings of office, the black turban and flowing robe considered as paraphernalia of a senior cleric and an Islamic leader worth his salt, daunting challenges await Ali’s son. Therefore, as Mojtaba steps into the enormous shoes left behind by his father, the people’s template present three Rs that may define his time as Iran’s supreme leader, the third since the country transitioned, forcefully though, from monarchy to theocracy in 1979. These are the three Rs that Mojtaba might want to give urgent attention as he eases himself into the seat of power.
REVENGE: As things stand, Mojtaba is a desperate vengeful spirit. The new supreme leader’s calm facade masks a seething rage simmering in his cauldron of a mind. It figures, considering the enormity of the loss inflicted on his family by the joint action of American and Israeli airstrikes. Mojtaba’s mother, wife and daughter were killed by the airstrikes. That’s like trying to wipe out his bloodline. No man accepts that kind of tragic development lying down. Mojtaba was basking in the reflected glory of his father as Islamic leader before but he now has the hilt of the sword; he has all the machinery of power of the Iranian Islamic republic at his disposal. He will definitely be out for a revenge. This, however, won’t be an easy task as Trump keeps threatening fire and brimstone and Netanyahu keeps saying who ever succeeds Ali will meet same fate as his predecessor. No doubt, Mojtaba needs a fool-proof strategy to achieve his mission lest seeking revenge becomes a suicide mission for the new Islamic leader.
RESISTANCE AND DEFIANCE: Mojtaba is not new to struggles. He was baked in the furnace of the Iraq-Iran war at the age of 17. The war lasted for eight years. Mojtaba’s participation in the war was short but it must have fuelled his animosity towards the US and the West as a whole for giving support to Iraq in the war.
With this background, Mojtaba is likely to choose continuity over compromise in the war against America/Israel. A man who witnessed full-blown war in his formative years would definitely not be quick to bury the hatchet and let bygones be bygones.
Mojtaba has not made a public statement since his announcement as the new Islamic leader though there are speculations that he will continue with the hardline policies of his late father. Perhaps as a foretaste of what to define the new regime, Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi on Monday said, ” We’ll continue to resist as long as it takes and our dignity is not for sale.”
Mojtaba, as an Islamic leader, has the government, the cleric and the revolutionary guards in his clutches. He has the support of the large chunk of the masses too, he can’t afford to run a regime that is a departure from his late father’s. Doing so will incur the disaffection of the Iranians who believe the senior Khamenei chose martyrdom over cowardice.
RECONCILIATION AND REHABILITATION:
Even at the home front, there’s a pressing need for the new Islamic leader to unite the disparate strands particularly among the political elite of the country. This is absolutely necessary to present a common front in the bid to protect the country’s sovereignty and dignity.
In Iran, there are those disgruntled over the choice of Mojtaba. This is because there is a supposed standing order that a supreme leader must be chosen based on his religious standing and proven leadership not through hereditary succession. Mojtaba’s rise to power falls short of this order on two counts. The new supreme leader is considered a “mid-ranking” cleric in some quarters and the fact that he is succeeding his father makes the whole arrangement appears like hereditary succession.
Mojtaba will also be expected to take the country out of the woods by revamping Iran’s current dysfunctional economy. The onus also lies on the new Islamic leader to strengthen the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to resist external aggression.
And there’s also the President of the United States’ threat dangling like the sword of Damocles over Mojtaba’s head. Remember days after the elimination of Ali Khamenei, Trump said, ” If he doesn’t get (Ali’s successor) from us, he is not going to last long.”
Iran neither sought nor got Trump’s consent before announcing Mojtaba as the country’s new leader. The first of the country’s deliberate act of defiance.
